prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
81% 6 Green Bay 37 25.0, 31 Atlanta 34 9.5
79% 8 Miami 49 21.8, 30 Detroit 21 8.7
77% 15 Houston 19 17.0, 29 Dallas 10 8.2
77% 3 Oakland 31 22.5, 20 Seattle 17 11.6
73% 12 Chicago 27 17.5, 24 Minnesota 23 10.0
71% 11 New York Jets 37 19.6, 27 Buffalo 31 12.2
63% 25 Washington 31 15.6, 28 Arizona 23 11.8
62% 9 San Francisco 16 15.9, 19 New York Giants 13 12.8
60% 5 New England 30 13.1, 4 Pittsburgh 14 11.2
58% 18 San Diego 34 13.7, 26 Cincinnati 6 12.3
53% 17 Kansas City 40 13.5, 23 Cleveland 39 13.0
38% 14 Indianapolis 28 18.5, 13 Jacksonville 25 22.3
32% 21 Tennessee 27 11.9, 2 Philadelphia 24 17.9
26% 22 New Orleans 26 10.9, 10 Tampa Bay 20 19.2
25% 16 Denver 23 15.3, 1 St. Louis 16 25.9
23% 32 Carolina 10 6.9, 7 Baltimore 7 17.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.76 4 0.78 8 0.83 1 1.24 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 16 11 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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