prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
76% 17 Carolina 31 32.4, 31 Detroit 7 16.6
76% 4 San Diego 24 23.5, 18 Houston 3 12.3
67% 29 Cleveland 20 27.1, 32 Cincinnati 7 17.9
67% 3 Oakland 30 26.4, 16 Pittsburgh 17 19.3
66% 1 New England 44 28.5, 14 New York Jets 7 20.4
64% 13 Chicago 14 30.8, 26 Atlanta 13 23.4
59% 15 Philadelphia 37 22.9, 22 Washington 7 20.2
59% 2 Miami 21 33.7, 7 Indianapolis 13 30.6
54% 12 New Orleans 35 32.0, 9 Green Bay 20 30.5
53% 19 Tampa Bay 25 14.5, 25 Baltimore 0 13.9
44% 5 Denver 24 17.9, 6 San Francisco 14 19.1
40% 27 Buffalo 45 29.6, 23 Minnesota 39 33.9
33% 30 Arizona 24 20.1, 20 Seattle 13 28.6
33% 24 Jacksonville 23 24.8, 11 Kansas City 16 35.3
29% 28 Dallas 21 16.3, 8 Tennessee 13 25.8
29% 21 New York Giants 26 15.3, 10 St. Louis 20 23.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.42 7 0.87 4 0.68 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 16 10 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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