prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 1 New England 41 36.9, 17 Kansas City 38 15.4
85% 4 Philadelphia 44 25.7, 29 Dallas 13 6.9
82% 6 Denver 28 35.1, 22 Buffalo 23 19.6
80% 5 Miami 30 31.4, 25 New York Jets 3 15.7
79% 24 Atlanta 30 22.5, 32 Cincinnati 3 9.3
79% 2 San Diego 23 25.7, 20 Arizona 15 12.7
78% 12 New York Giants 9 22.0, 27 Seattle 6 11.2
77% 14 San Francisco 20 23.3, 28 Washington 10 13.7
71% 23 Green Bay 37 35.4, 31 Detroit 31 27.8
68% 9 Carolina 21 26.0, 21 Minnesota 14 19.7
64% 8 Tampa Bay 26 22.4, 11 St. Louis 14 17.8
63% 15 Indianapolis 23 22.6, 26 Houston 3 18.9
52% 7 New Orleans 29 22.1, 10 Chicago 23 21.7
41% 19 Cleveland 31 25.4, 18 Tennessee 28 27.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.90 3 1.54 6 1.30 3 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 14 13 1.27
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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