prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 9 Indianapolis 28 29.1, 31 Cincinnati 21 5.7
89% 4 Kansas City 29 41.9, 32 New York Jets 25 15.6
83% 1 Oakland 49 43.5, 24 Buffalo 31 26.8
74% 5 Tampa Bay 20 23.4, 20 Atlanta 6 14.9
65% 13 San Francisco 37 19.8, 22 St. Louis 13 15.3
61% 12 New Orleans 32 21.0, 14 Pittsburgh 29 18.4
60% 23 New York Giants 21 12.5, 28 Dallas 17 10.4
60% 2 Jacksonville 28 19.2, 3 Philadelphia 25 16.9
47% 18 Green Bay 34 20.4, 21 Chicago 21 21.0
46% 8 Miami 26 22.6, 6 New England 13 23.3
40% 26 Washington 31 23.3, 25 Tennessee 14 25.9
38% 19 Baltimore 26 15.0, 11 Cleveland 21 18.1
36% 17 Denver 26 19.1, 7 San Diego 9 23.9
32% 16 Arizona 16 11.6, 10 Carolina 13 16.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.60 7 0.68 1 1.34 3 1.14 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 14 8 0.85
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net