prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 4 Green Bay 30 34.2, 24 Washington 9 16.5
74% 15 Arizona 9 20.1, 23 Dallas 6 12.6
70% 21 Cleveland 34 21.2, 28 Houston 17 14.9
63% 16 St. Louis 37 24.0, 19 Seattle 20 19.7
63% 1 Philadelphia 20 19.3, 2 Tampa Bay 10 15.7
60% 25 Atlanta 30 17.4, 26 Carolina 0 15.5
60% 13 Pittsburgh 28 25.2, 14 Indianapolis 10 23.0
58% 31 New York Jets 20 24.2, 30 Minnesota 7 22.7
41% 11 Baltimore 17 14.9, 8 Jacksonville 10 16.3
39% 29 Detroit 23 20.0, 22 Chicago 20 22.9
38% 17 New Orleans 35 21.6, 7 San Francisco 27 25.3
37% 9 Denver 37 30.1, 6 Kansas City 34 34.0
25% 10 San Diego 27 19.5, 3 Oakland 21 28.6
21% 20 Buffalo 23 22.4, 5 Miami 10 35.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.27 6 0.78 3 0.44 1 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 14 8 0.86
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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