prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 3 Tampa Bay 12 22.4, 28 Carolina 9 6.5
84% 1 Philadelphia 17 24.5, 21 New York Giants 3 8.0
76% 15 Buffalo 24 35.3, 24 Detroit 17 24.5
74% 17 Cleveland 24 24.1, 31 New York Jets 21 16.0
67% 13 San Francisco 38 20.6, 19 Arizona 28 15.3
62% 26 Tennessee 30 22.1, 32 Cincinnati 24 18.6
58% 9 Denver 24 22.1, 14 New England 16 20.7
46% 11 Kansas City 20 34.6, 5 Oakland 10 35.4
42% 8 Pittsburgh 31 14.3, 7 Baltimore 18 15.6
36% 27 Washington 26 21.3, 22 Indianapolis 21 25.9
35% 25 Seattle 17 15.7, 23 Dallas 14 20.4
33% 30 Minnesota 25 17.7, 20 Chicago 7 23.7
28% 18 Atlanta 37 20.7, 10 New Orleans 35 28.7
19% 29 Houston 21 10.9, 16 Jacksonville 19 23.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.59 5 0.61 3 0.90 3 0.80 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 14 7 0.72
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net