prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 18 Jacksonville 24 24.7, 32 Houston 21 7.5
84% 6 Tampa Bay 23 22.0, 28 Carolina 10 7.4
80% 7 Philadelphia 38 22.8, 27 Arizona 14 10.2
80% 5 St. Louis 21 32.0, 25 Chicago 16 17.6
77% 13 Indianapolis 20 21.7, 29 Dallas 3 11.3
73% 10 Kansas City 17 32.1, 23 Buffalo 16 23.4
73% 9 New York Jets 31 24.9, 30 Detroit 14 16.7
71% 17 New York Giants 19 18.9, 24 Washington 17 12.9
64% 21 Cleveland 27 24.8, 31 Cincinnati 20 20.4
62% 20 Miami 26 20.1, 22 Baltimore 7 17.0
62% 1 Oakland 27 23.7, 3 New England 20 20.5
56% 12 Atlanta 24 31.9, 11 New Orleans 17 30.8
49% 15 Denver 31 17.8, 19 Seattle 9 18.0
43% 16 Tennessee 31 19.6, 8 Pittsburgh 23 20.9
36% 14 San Diego 20 15.5, 4 San Francisco 17 19.6
20% 26 Minnesota 31 20.4, 2 Green Bay 21 33.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.61 4 1.20 7 1.12 2 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 12 11.2 1.07
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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