prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 7 New England 20 30.1, 31 Detroit 12 14.5
80% 9 Indianapolis 19 28.8, 29 Houston 3 14.2
79% 11 Kansas City 49 33.2, 28 Arizona 0 19.5
77% 1 Philadelphia 10 28.8, 10 St. Louis 3 18.2
74% 2 Oakland 26 26.6, 6 New York Jets 20 17.9
67% 5 Atlanta 30 25.6, 22 Minnesota 24 19.7
64% 14 San Francisco 31 21.0, 18 Seattle 24 16.8
57% 24 Baltimore 27 18.9, 27 Cincinnati 23 17.7
42% 19 San Diego 30 18.8, 12 Denver 27 20.2
42% 17 Tennessee 32 18.1, 20 New York Giants 29 19.5
41% 15 Pittsburgh 25 20.4, 16 Jacksonville 23 22.3
38% 30 Dallas 27 13.3, 25 Washington 20 16.1
28% 21 Chicago 30 16.9, 8 Green Bay 20 24.6
22% 23 New Orleans 23 15.0, 3 Tampa Bay 20 26.1
21% 26 Buffalo 38 14.6, 4 Miami 21 27.9
16% 32 Carolina 13 7.5, 13 Cleveland 6 25.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.43 3 1.04 6 0.65 3 0.81 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 8 11.3 0.71
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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