prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
77% 13 Green Bay 26 30.2, 27 Minnesota 22 19.2
75% 1 Philadelphia 27 24.6, 16 Seattle 20 16.2
74% 3 Kansas City 49 30.2, 8 St. Louis 10 20.9
71% 4 Oakland 27 27.6, 18 San Diego 7 19.9
71% 2 Tampa Bay 34 20.3, 5 Atlanta 10 13.8
68% 10 New England 27 25.8, 23 Buffalo 17 19.2
63% 6 Miami 27 20.6, 11 Chicago 9 16.8
61% 20 San Francisco 31 21.4, 26 Dallas 27 18.7
59% 22 New York Giants 27 18.0, 25 Washington 21 16.6
57% 12 New York Jets 19 21.7, 9 Denver 13 20.5
51% 19 New Orleans 37 21.3, 24 Baltimore 25 21.1
50% 21 Tennessee 27 22.2, 14 Indianapolis 17 22.1
44% 31 Carolina 52 15.0, 28 Cincinnati 31 16.0
42% 32 Arizona 23 19.7, 30 Detroit 20 21.3
40% 15 Cleveland 21 17.6, 17 Jacksonville 20 19.9
20% 29 Houston 24 15.0, 7 Pittsburgh 6 27.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 1.21 4 1.19 6 1.11 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 12 10.3 1.16
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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