2002 Week 15 (15-16 Dec) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 87%   4 Philadelphia            34 30.9,    29 Washington              21 11.1
 86%   2 Tampa Bay               23 26.4,    30 Detroit                 20  8.4
 81%  11 Jacksonville            29 32.8,    32 Cincinnati              15 17.0
 79%  21 St. Louis               30 27.8,    31 Arizona                 28 15.0
 64%  22 New York Giants         37 21.0,    26 Dallas                   7 17.0
 64%  20 Pittsburgh              30 21.7,    27 Carolina                14 17.1
 63%  15 Buffalo                 20 24.2,    23 San Diego               13 19.9

 49%  10 Green Bay               20 25.2,    16 San Francisco           14 25.3
 42%  14 Chicago                 20 18.5,     6 New York Jets           13 19.9
 41%  17 Tennessee               24 20.7,     7 New England              7 22.6
 38%  19 Indianapolis            28 17.4,    12 Cleveland               23 20.4
 38%   5 Miami                   23 19.7,     3 Oakland                 17 23.2
 37%  28 Baltimore               23 15.3,    25 Houston                 19 19.0
 36%  18 Seattle                 30 19.3,     9 Atlanta                 24 23.7
 30%  24 Minnesota               32 25.5,     8 New Orleans             31 33.0
 23%  13 Denver                  31 20.3,     1 Kansas City             24 31.6

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                3 0.00   7 0.68   3 0.44   3 1.18   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16   7  10.9 0.64

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: predicted scores are not released until after game time

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