2002 Week 16 (21-23 Dec) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 86%   2 Philadelphia            27 32.1,    31 Dallas                   3 11.8
 82%   1 Kansas City             24 30.2,    21 San Diego               22 15.3
 75%   4 Oakland                 28 27.6,    11 Denver                  16 18.3
 73%  22 Atlanta                 36 28.2,    30 Detroit                 15 19.5
 72%   9 Seattle                 30 27.4,    24 St. Louis               10 19.1
 70%  12 San Francisco           17 26.7,    29 Arizona                 14 19.6
 65%   6 Green Bay               10 25.2,    13 Buffalo                  0 20.0
 58%  19 Cleveland               14 20.7,    27 Baltimore               13 19.2
 57%   7 New York Giants         44 21.8,    16 Indianapolis            27 20.6

 48%  28 Washington              26 18.9,    25 Houston                 10 19.3
 44%  26 Carolina                24 18.0,    17 Chicago                 14 19.0
 41%   8 Tennessee               28 20.8,    10 Jacksonville            10 22.6
 40%  15 New York Jets           30 16.7,    14 New England             17 18.8
 28%  23 Minnesota               20 18.4,     5 Miami                   17 26.1
 24%  32 Cincinnati              20 24.5,    18 New Orleans             13 35.1
 21%  20 Pittsburgh              17 13.9,     3 Tampa Bay                7 25.9

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                5 0.71   2 0.80   7 0.77   2 1.19   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16   9  10.9 0.82

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: predicted scores are not released until after game time

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