prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
79% 7 Tennessee 13 26.0, 30 Houston 3 13.5
77% 20 Washington 20 24.1, 32 Dallas 14 14.1
77% 12 Denver 37 26.9, 28 Arizona 7 16.3
75% 8 Pittsburgh 34 23.3, 25 Baltimore 31 15.0
70% 5 Tampa Bay 15 18.7, 17 Chicago 0 12.8
68% 18 Buffalo 27 22.7, 29 Cincinnati 9 15.5
65% 24 Minnesota 38 27.2, 31 Detroit 36 22.0
61% 2 Oakland 24 28.4, 3 Kansas City 0 25.6
59% 21 Indianapolis 20 22.5, 19 Jacksonville 13 20.8
53% 11 Seattle 31 19.3, 14 San Diego 28 18.8
50% 10 New York Jets 42 16.5, 4 Green Bay 17 16.5
46% 23 Cleveland 24 21.6, 15 Atlanta 16 22.3
40% 16 New England 27 16.7, 9 Miami 24 18.8
37% 27 St. Louis 31 20.0, 13 San Francisco 20 23.8
37% 26 Carolina 10 20.1, 22 New Orleans 6 24.4
33% 6 New York Giants 10 18.1, 1 Philadelphia 7 23.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.92 8 0.77 4 1.30 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 10.4 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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