2003 Week 4 (28-29 Sep) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 88%   2 Denver                  20 35.4,    25 Detroit                 16 13.9
 80%  11 Green Bay               38 27.6,    32 Chicago                 23 12.5
 79%  18 St. Louis               37 29.7,    30 Arizona                 13 16.7
 78%  17 Oakland                 34 28.4,    29 San Diego               31 16.2
 74%   3 Kansas City             17 29.5,    16 Baltimore               10 20.8
 68%   6 Indianapolis            55 22.3,    22 New Orleans             21 16.3
 57%   9 Minnesota               35 24.2,     8 San Francisco            7 22.8
 51%  20 Carolina                23 22.7,    14 Atlanta                  3 22.4

 46%  31 Houston                 24 21.4,    28 Jacksonville            20 22.1
 42%  12 Washington              20 20.8,     7 New England             17 22.3
 39%  19 Tennessee               30 20.2,    15 Pittsburgh              13 23.3
 32%  26 Cincinnati              21 12.1,    24 Cleveland               14 17.4
 29%  27 Dallas                  17 15.7,    21 New York Jets            6 22.5
 22%  23 Philadelphia            23  8.0,     5 Buffalo                 13 22.1

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                4 0.91   3 0.51   5 0.79   2 1.19   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  14   8   9.7 0.83

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: predicted scores are not released until after game time

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