prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 5 Denver 17 31.2, 25 Pittsburgh 14 14.9
83% 11 Tennessee 38 31.2, 31 Houston 17 14.5
79% 20 Baltimore 26 25.5, 32 Arizona 18 12.9
71% 6 Miami 24 22.8, 26 Jacksonville 10 15.9
70% 4 Tampa Bay 35 24.6, 18 Washington 13 17.2
69% 17 St. Louis 36 29.3, 22 Atlanta 0 22.7
65% 10 New England 17 23.8, 15 New York Giants 6 18.9
63% 3 Kansas City 40 26.5, 7 Green Bay 34 22.4
61% 29 New Orleans 20 24.7, 30 Chicago 13 21.6
61% 12 Seattle 20 21.9, 14 San Francisco 19 18.9
60% 19 Cleveland 13 21.1, 16 Oakland 7 18.9
51% 21 Dallas 23 16.6, 13 Philadelphia 21 16.5
33% 24 New York Jets 30 15.8, 9 Buffalo 3 20.6
24% 8 Carolina 23 15.8, 1 Indianapolis 20 25.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.81 6 1.30 4 1.01 2 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 12 9.6 1.25
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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