prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
78% 14 New York Jets 19 26.6, 31 Houston 14 14.8
77% 16 Seattle 24 25.8, 30 Chicago 17 14.7
72% 3 Kansas City 17 31.3, 18 Oakland 10 23.6
64% 19 Buffalo 24 26.2, 22 Washington 7 21.6
63% 7 St. Louis 34 26.8, 8 Green Bay 24 22.5
63% 2 Minnesota 28 24.5, 4 Denver 20 20.4
47% 21 Dallas 38 19.4, 24 Detroit 7 20.0
43% 26 New Orleans 45 22.1, 29 Atlanta 17 23.5
43% 15 Philadelphia 14 17.4, 20 New York Giants 10 18.7
41% 10 Tennessee 37 19.1, 11 Carolina 17 21.1
37% 25 Cincinnati 34 15.4, 17 Baltimore 26 18.8
34% 9 New England 19 15.3, 6 Miami 13 20.0
30% 12 San Francisco 24 15.8, 1 Tampa Bay 7 22.4
21% 27 San Diego 26 11.4, 13 Cleveland 20 22.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.00 6 0.77 4 0.98 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 6 9.2 0.65
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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