prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 4 Indianapolis 30 40.0, 31 Houston 21 13.1
78% 1 Kansas City 38 28.3, 15 Buffalo 5 16.5
76% 9 Tennessee 30 29.8, 28 Jacksonville 17 20.1
75% 8 New England 9 21.4, 20 Cleveland 3 13.0
75% 7 Miami 26 22.8, 27 San Diego 10 14.0
74% 3 Tampa Bay 16 21.4, 11 Dallas 0 12.9
72% 5 St. Louis 33 28.9, 24 Pittsburgh 21 21.1
67% 12 Philadelphia 24 18.4, 17 New York Jets 17 13.6
64% 26 Chicago 24 22.9, 29 Detroit 16 18.0
44% 18 Carolina 23 19.5, 21 New Orleans 20 20.6
40% 25 Cincinnati 27 18.9, 14 Seattle 24 21.0
35% 22 Baltimore 26 17.8, 6 Denver 6 22.6
20% 19 New York Giants 29 15.4, 2 Minnesota 17 29.7
16% 32 Arizona 16 13.8, 10 San Francisco 13 30.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.00 3 1.02 6 1.33 2 0.00 1 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 9 10.2 0.88
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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