prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
81% 10 Baltimore 24 29.0, 28 Jacksonville 17 14.8
75% 15 Philadelphia 23 25.8, 30 Atlanta 16 16.9
70% 11 Dallas 21 23.9, 22 Washington 14 17.0
67% 20 Seattle 23 24.4, 25 Pittsburgh 16 19.1
62% 26 Chicago 20 22.8, 27 San Diego 7 19.2
44% 12 New York Giants 31 17.1, 17 New York Jets 28 18.0
44% 8 New England 30 18.4, 9 Denver 26 19.5
43% 4 Indianapolis 23 19.3, 6 Miami 17 20.6
38% 13 San Francisco 30 21.2, 3 St. Louis 10 24.4
33% 32 Arizona 17 17.7, 24 Cincinnati 14 22.9
31% 31 Houston 14 18.1, 19 Carolina 10 24.6
30% 14 Green Bay 30 22.0, 5 Minnesota 27 29.4
29% 29 Detroit 23 18.3, 16 Oakland 13 25.7
21% 21 New Orleans 17 13.0, 2 Tampa Bay 14 25.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.00 6 0.76 4 0.34 1 1.24 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 5 9.4 0.53
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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