prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 1 Kansas City 41 29.2, 22 Cleveland 20 10.8
76% 21 Pittsburgh 28 25.7, 32 Arizona 15 16.2
70% 7 St. Louis 33 24.7, 15 Baltimore 22 17.9
64% 26 Cincinnati 34 22.7, 31 Houston 27 17.8
64% 14 Dallas 10 19.7, 20 Buffalo 6 15.8
60% 8 Tennessee 31 21.6, 5 Miami 7 19.5
51% 27 Detroit 12 19.2, 25 Chicago 10 19.0
45% 24 Washington 27 21.8, 17 Seattle 20 22.8
37% 18 New York Jets 27 17.7, 16 Oakland 24 21.3
36% 10 Philadelphia 17 19.0, 6 Green Bay 14 23.7
27% 23 Carolina 27 10.2, 2 Tampa Bay 24 18.3
24% 28 San Diego 42 20.2, 9 Minnesota 28 29.8
21% 29 Jacksonville 28 19.1, 4 Indianapolis 23 32.2
18% 30 Atlanta 27 15.3, 12 New York Giants 7 30.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.21 5 0.92 4 0.33 2 0.59 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 7 9.6 0.73
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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