prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 7 St. Louis 30 31.2, 32 Arizona 27 14.8
79% 13 Minnesota 24 31.3, 30 Detroit 14 18.6
79% 3 New England 23 26.6, 31 Houston 20 13.2
79% 2 Philadelphia 33 26.6, 20 New Orleans 20 13.9
78% 4 Tampa Bay 19 21.9, 21 New York Giants 13 11.0
77% 14 New York Jets 13 27.2, 29 Jacksonville 10 16.7
75% 1 Kansas City 27 30.9, 12 Oakland 24 21.2
73% 11 Miami 24 22.5, 24 Washington 23 14.9
73% 5 Tennessee 38 27.3, 26 Atlanta 31 19.1
64% 8 Indianapolis 17 24.6, 22 Buffalo 14 20.0
64% 6 Green Bay 20 23.7, 10 San Francisco 10 19.2
61% 17 Dallas 24 16.7, 18 Carolina 20 14.1
60% 15 Baltimore 44 20.6, 16 Seattle 41 18.1
39% 28 Cincinnati 34 20.5, 25 San Diego 27 23.5
35% 23 Pittsburgh 13 16.6, 19 Cleveland 6 21.3
23% 27 Chicago 19 14.3, 9 Denver 10 24.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 6 1.06 9 1.16 1 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 13 11.5 1.13
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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