prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
82% 1 Kansas City 28 34.2, 30 San Diego 24 19.5
78% 26 Chicago 28 22.8, 32 Arizona 3 12.2
67% 6 St. Louis 48 31.1, 12 Minnesota 17 25.1
67% 2 Philadelphia 25 20.7, 19 Carolina 16 15.7
62% 15 Seattle 34 21.3, 20 Cleveland 7 17.8
59% 14 Baltimore 44 20.0, 13 San Francisco 6 18.3
57% 11 Miami 40 13.8, 17 Dallas 21 12.7
43% 31 Houston 17 20.6, 27 Atlanta 13 22.0
41% 16 New York Jets 24 19.8, 7 Tennessee 17 21.7
38% 25 Cincinnati 24 20.1, 22 Pittsburgh 20 23.6
38% 23 New Orleans 24 22.5, 21 Washington 20 26.1
38% 10 Denver 22 18.7, 9 Oakland 8 22.2
37% 24 Buffalo 24 16.3, 18 New York Giants 7 20.1
37% 8 New England 38 19.3, 4 Indianapolis 34 23.2
25% 28 Jacksonville 17 12.5, 3 Tampa Bay 10 21.3
23% 29 Detroit 22 16.8, 5 Green Bay 14 27.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.86 8 0.59 3 0.43 1 1.23 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 7 10.5 0.66
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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