2003 Week 15 (14-15 Dec) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 86%   6 Tampa Bay               16 25.7,    31 Houston                  3  6.7
 84%   4 Kansas City             45 33.1,    30 Detroit                 17 16.4
 79%   8 Indianapolis            38 33.1,    28 Atlanta                  7 20.3
 79%   3 Denver                  23 26.3,    26 Cleveland               20 13.2
 77%   5 New England             27 22.9,    23 Jacksonville            13 12.8
 76%   2 St. Louis               27 30.7,    15 Seattle                 22 20.2
 75%  22 Carolina                20 24.5,    32 Arizona                 17 15.5
 67%   9 Tennessee               28 22.8,    14 Buffalo                 26 17.0
 66%  11 Green Bay               38 24.3,    27 San Diego               21 19.0
 64%  18 New Orleans             45 22.2,    25 New York Giants          7 17.5
 62%  17 New York Jets            6 20.3,    19 Pittsburgh               0 17.2
 61%   1 Philadelphia            34 19.7,    10 Miami                   27 17.2
 50%  20 Chicago                 13 22.5,    13 Minnesota               10 22.5

 41%  16 Oakland                 20 20.8,     7 Baltimore               12 22.6
 37%  24 Dallas                  27 17.0,    21 Washington               0 21.0
 32%  29 Cincinnati              41 19.6,    12 San Francisco           38 26.4

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                2 0.91   7 1.11   5 1.29   2 1.17   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16  13  11.2 1.16

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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