prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
82% 14 Seattle 28 30.8, 32 Arizona 10 15.7
80% 3 St. Louis 27 33.9, 26 Cincinnati 10 19.8
76% 10 Tennessee 27 27.5, 31 Houston 24 17.4
71% 19 Dallas 19 20.2, 28 New York Giants 3 13.5
70% 20 Carolina 20 22.9, 30 Detroit 14 16.3
70% 16 Pittsburgh 40 23.2, 29 San Diego 24 16.2
62% 22 Chicago 27 19.4, 23 Washington 24 16.6
61% 9 Baltimore 35 20.8, 25 Cleveland 0 18.0
61% 7 New England 21 18.9, 21 New York Jets 16 16.4
55% 8 Green Bay 41 20.8, 17 Oakland 7 19.8
44% 4 Denver 31 25.2, 5 Indianapolis 17 26.4
41% 12 Miami 20 16.7, 13 Buffalo 3 18.3
40% 24 Jacksonville 20 19.7, 11 New Orleans 19 21.7
31% 18 Minnesota 45 26.2, 2 Kansas City 20 32.8
23% 15 San Francisco 31 17.7, 1 Philadelphia 28 29.1
21% 27 Atlanta 30 10.4, 6 Tampa Bay 28 22.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.43 5 1.24 5 0.80 2 1.23 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 10.9 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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