prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
77% 7 Indianapolis 20 31.5, 30 Houston 17 20.1
76% 3 Kansas City 31 27.1, 20 Chicago 3 17.1
76% 1 Philadelphia 31 27.9, 24 Washington 7 18.4
74% 6 New England 31 20.4, 19 Buffalo 0 13.0
69% 10 Miami 23 20.0, 18 New York Jets 21 14.1
67% 8 Baltimore 13 21.8, 17 Pittsburgh 10 16.3
66% 21 Carolina 37 20.1, 31 New York Giants 24 15.3
63% 2 Green Bay 31 24.0, 5 Denver 3 20.1
62% 23 Atlanta 21 21.0, 25 Jacksonville 14 17.9
59% 12 Tennessee 33 19.4, 9 Tampa Bay 13 17.6
51% 14 New Orleans 13 19.4, 11 Dallas 7 19.3
40% 28 San Diego 21 20.0, 22 Oakland 14 22.3
40% 27 Cleveland 22 18.9, 26 Cincinnati 14 20.9
39% 16 Seattle 24 23.5, 15 San Francisco 17 26.2
22% 29 Detroit 30 18.1, 4 St. Louis 20 29.8
20% 32 Arizona 18 18.9, 13 Minnesota 17 32.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.18 7 1.12 6 0.87 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 10.8 1.02
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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