prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
62% 2 New England 17 22.6, 6 Tennessee 14 19.2
57% 3 Philadelphia 20 22.3, 1 Green Bay 17 21.0
39% 5 Indianapolis 38 27.2, 4 Kansas City 31 30.1
33% 12 Carolina 29 19.6, 7 St. Louis 23 25.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.75 3 0.53 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 2 2.5 0.81
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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