2004 Week 2 (19-20 Sep) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 76%  19 Detroit                 28 28.0,    32 Houston                 16 10.4
 71%   5 New England             23 24.2,    30 Arizona                 12 10.5
 61%  22 Oakland                 13 21.1,    27 Buffalo                 10 16.1
 61%  11 Atlanta                 34 21.9,    21 St. Louis               17 16.9
 61%   4 Seattle                 10 15.1,    12 Tampa Bay                6  9.7
 56%   8 Philadelphia            27 27.9,     6 Minnesota               16 26.2
 53%  29 New Orleans             30 18.5,    24 San Francisco           27 17.5

 47%  23 Cincinnati              16 17.5,    17 Miami                   13 18.7
 41%  28 Baltimore               30 15.8,    18 Pittsburgh              13 19.1
 41%  16 New York Jets           34 19.0,    13 San Diego               28 22.0
 40%  26 New York Giants         20 19.1,    15 Washington              14 23.0
 39%  14 Jacksonville             7 17.2,     3 Denver                   6 21.8
 35%  25 Dallas                  19  8.9,     7 Cleveland               12 18.7
 35%  20 Carolina                28 20.4,    10 Kansas City             17 28.3
 35%   9 Indianapolis            31 18.6,     1 Tennessee               17 27.0
 21%  31 Chicago                 21  8.5,     2 Green Bay               10 31.1

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                5 0.71   8 0.60   3 0.89   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16   7  10.0 0.70

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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