prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 1 Seattle 34 28.8, 19 San Francisco 0 12.8
83% 10 Atlanta 6 27.6, 31 Arizona 3 12.0
80% 2 Denver 23 30.3, 23 San Diego 13 15.1
74% 6 Philadelphia 30 25.0, 25 Detroit 13 16.5
71% 3 Indianapolis 45 27.4, 9 Green Bay 31 19.5
64% 20 Oakland 30 13.7, 26 Tampa Bay 20 9.5
64% 12 Minnesota 27 25.8, 16 Chicago 22 21.0
63% 11 Baltimore 23 23.9, 22 Cincinnati 9 19.8
54% 17 New Orleans 28 20.7, 29 St. Louis 25 19.8
41% 5 Jacksonville 15 12.9, 7 Tennessee 12 14.3
40% 18 Pittsburgh 13 13.6, 21 Miami 3 15.5
39% 28 Dallas 21 17.3, 24 Washington 18 19.8
37% 27 New York Giants 27 14.3, 15 Cleveland 10 18.1
13% 32 Houston 24 15.9, 14 Kansas City 21 36.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.89 6 0.80 2 1.39 4 0.90 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 9 9.7 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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