prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 3 New England 31 24.6, 31 Buffalo 17 7.6
78% 4 Denver 16 17.4, 22 Tampa Bay 13 8.1
74% 13 Pittsburgh 28 24.6, 29 Cincinnati 17 16.1
68% 5 Philadelphia 19 22.1, 20 Chicago 9 15.9
63% 23 Cleveland 17 20.3, 27 Washington 13 16.5
63% 2 Indianapolis 24 23.0, 6 Jacksonville 17 18.9
61% 14 New York Jets 17 18.4, 25 Miami 9 15.9
38% 26 St. Louis 24 22.9, 21 San Francisco 14 26.4
38% 17 San Diego 38 18.2, 8 Tennessee 17 22.0
36% 30 Houston 30 19.8, 15 Oakland 17 24.7
33% 19 New York Giants 14 17.9, 10 Green Bay 7 23.8
29% 18 Kansas City 27 18.0, 9 Baltimore 24 25.3
28% 16 Atlanta 27 13.9, 7 Carolina 10 22.1
23% 32 Arizona 34 12.0, 11 New Orleans 10 23.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 8 0.78 5 0.54 1 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 7 9.7 0.72
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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