prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 6 New York Jets 16 28.0, 32 Buffalo 14 9.9
85% 5 New England 24 23.9, 30 Miami 10 6.9
83% 2 Indianapolis 35 39.6, 21 Oakland 14 21.7
79% 4 Denver 20 23.6, 18 Carolina 17 11.0
75% 13 Pittsburgh 34 18.1, 20 Cleveland 23 10.6
66% 12 Minnesota 34 27.1, 29 Houston 28 21.8
64% 11 New York Giants 26 18.8, 26 Dallas 10 14.5
62% 10 Baltimore 17 20.9, 23 Washington 10 17.8
60% 9 San Diego 34 18.8, 7 Jacksonville 21 16.8
54% 17 Tampa Bay 20 17.0, 25 New Orleans 17 16.3
53% 27 San Francisco 31 18.3, 22 Arizona 28 17.8
47% 14 Tennessee 48 21.9, 19 Green Bay 10 22.5
21% 31 Detroit 17 12.4, 8 Atlanta 10 24.3
12% 16 St. Louis 33 8.5, 1 Seattle 27 28.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.37 3 1.57 3 0.86 4 0.88 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 11 9.9 1.12
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net