2004 Week 6 (17-18 Oct) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 79%   9 New York Jets           22 29.7,    30 San Francisco           14 17.1
 79%   4 Philadelphia            30 24.9,    18 Carolina                 8 13.1
 72%   5 Denver                  31 25.8,    21 Oakland                  3 18.1
 66%  12 Pittsburgh              34 19.7,    31 Dallas                  20 14.8
 65%  23 Cleveland               34 22.9,    28 Cincinnati              17 18.1
 61%  15 Minnesota               38 30.1,    27 New Orleans             31 27.5
 61%  13 St. Louis               28 19.0,    11 Tampa Bay               21 16.6
 60%  17 Jacksonville            22 21.0,    14 Kansas City             16 19.0
 60%   3 New England             30 18.8,     2 Seattle                 20 16.7
 56%  32 Buffalo                 20 11.9,    29 Miami                   13 11.0

 41%  19 Washington              13 16.6,    25 Chicago                 10 18.1
 39%  26 Green Bay               38 18.1,    22 Detroit                 10 21.0
 39%  16 Atlanta                 21 20.4,     6 San Diego               20 23.5
 23%  24 Houston                 20 16.6,     7 Tennessee               10 28.0

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                4 1.28   6 1.07   4 0.98   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  14  10   9.2 1.09

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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