prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
78% 3 San Diego 43 32.8, 22 New Orleans 17 20.8
73% 8 Denver 31 23.9, 20 Houston 13 16.1
73% 6 Baltimore 27 21.2, 21 Cleveland 13 13.6
69% 10 Seattle 42 25.2, 30 San Francisco 27 18.9
65% 24 Cincinnati 26 23.6, 31 Dallas 3 18.6
64% 7 Indianapolis 31 34.9, 11 Minnesota 28 30.1
59% 4 New England 40 26.0, 14 St. Louis 22 24.0
40% 29 Washington 17 17.8, 27 Detroit 10 20.0
38% 26 Arizona 24 14.9, 25 Miami 23 17.8
37% 9 Pittsburgh 27 20.1, 1 Philadelphia 3 23.9
33% 23 Buffalo 22 15.8, 5 New York Jets 17 21.1
33% 17 Tampa Bay 34 19.3, 2 Kansas City 31 25.2
27% 32 Oakland 27 15.5, 18 Carolina 24 23.4
23% 28 Chicago 28 10.7, 12 New York Giants 21 19.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.68 8 0.58 5 0.80 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 7 9.5 0.74
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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