prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 7 Baltimore 30 26.9, 32 Dallas 10 10.4
81% 4 Philadelphia 28 25.8, 27 Washington 6 11.8
77% 5 San Diego 23 30.8, 31 Oakland 17 20.2
72% 15 Minnesota 22 28.7, 29 Detroit 19 20.7
71% 8 Denver 34 27.9, 26 New Orleans 13 20.6
70% 17 Tampa Bay 35 24.1, 30 San Francisco 3 17.1
70% 9 Seattle 24 22.5, 21 Miami 17 15.7
70% 1 Indianapolis 41 27.5, 14 Chicago 10 20.0
65% 3 Pittsburgh 19 23.0, 16 Cincinnati 14 18.1
64% 20 Carolina 35 21.2, 24 Arizona 10 16.9
64% 11 Green Bay 16 26.2, 25 Houston 13 21.4
64% 10 New York Jets 10 21.9, 28 Cleveland 7 17.3
49% 2 New England 27 28.7, 6 Kansas City 19 29.0
47% 23 Buffalo 37 21.1, 13 St. Louis 17 21.6
43% 18 Atlanta 14 19.4, 22 New York Giants 10 20.7
34% 19 Tennessee 18 14.4, 12 Jacksonville 15 19.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.00 5 1.24 6 1.39 2 1.21 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 12 10.8 1.11
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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