prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 1 Indianapolis 23 36.4, 25 Houston 14 20.0
82% 5 Buffalo 37 29.9, 30 Cleveland 7 15.0
80% 2 New England 35 31.5, 15 Cincinnati 28 17.5
79% 11 Baltimore 37 22.5, 28 New York Giants 14 11.1
78% 3 Philadelphia 17 24.3, 19 Washington 14 13.0
76% 13 Green Bay 16 27.5, 27 Detroit 13 17.7
74% 10 Denver 20 24.3, 21 Miami 17 16.0
73% 16 Jacksonville 22 17.8, 24 Chicago 3 10.7
71% 12 Carolina 20 26.8, 23 St. Louis 7 19.2
63% 4 Pittsburgh 17 19.2, 7 New York Jets 6 15.6
62% 9 Kansas City 49 29.9, 17 Tennessee 38 26.1
62% 6 San Diego 31 20.8, 8 Tampa Bay 24 17.4
59% 22 Atlanta 35 21.5, 18 Oakland 10 19.8
48% 31 San Francisco 31 19.7, 32 Arizona 28 20.1
35% 29 New Orleans 27 23.1, 26 Dallas 13 28.5
31% 20 Seattle 27 25.4, 14 Minnesota 23 32.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.90 5 0.93 6 1.33 3 1.22 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 13 11.3 1.15
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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