prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 3 Philadelphia 12 32.9, 29 Dallas 7 14.2
77% 10 San Diego 21 31.1, 32 Cleveland 0 20.5
77% 6 Pittsburgh 33 22.3, 28 New York Giants 30 12.4
77% 1 Indianapolis 20 30.8, 7 Baltimore 10 19.4
68% 5 Buffalo 33 27.7, 19 Cincinnati 17 21.3
66% 4 Kansas City 45 32.4, 8 Denver 17 27.0
65% 9 New York Jets 37 21.6, 16 Seattle 14 16.7
63% 14 Minnesota 28 25.8, 26 Detroit 27 21.5
50% 24 Washington 26 20.2, 30 San Francisco 16 20.1
44% 22 Oakland 40 23.5, 17 Tennessee 35 24.6
44% 18 Atlanta 34 18.4, 12 Carolina 31 19.4
38% 31 Arizona 31 19.2, 21 St. Louis 7 22.5
37% 27 Houston 24 15.8, 25 Chicago 5 19.0
37% 15 Jacksonville 28 17.2, 13 Green Bay 25 20.9
25% 23 New Orleans 21 15.8, 11 Tampa Bay 17 24.9
24% 20 Miami 29 16.7, 2 New England 28 26.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.62 7 0.89 5 0.78 1 1.16 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 10.8 0.83
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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