prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
80% 4 Kansas City 31 39.0, 25 Oakland 30 24.8
78% 17 Miami 10 25.8, 32 Cleveland 7 14.1
78% 7 Buffalo 41 30.2, 31 San Francisco 7 18.3
76% 1 Indianapolis 34 32.2, 8 San Diego 31 21.7
70% 18 Seattle 24 24.7, 27 Arizona 21 17.5
69% 24 Detroit 19 18.9, 30 Chicago 13 13.3
67% 21 Cincinnati 23 26.0, 29 New York Giants 22 20.3
62% 5 Pittsburgh 20 19.3, 9 Baltimore 7 16.5
57% 2 New England 23 19.9, 6 New York Jets 7 18.7
53% 23 New Orleans 26 23.9, 19 Atlanta 13 23.3
50% 28 Dallas 31 18.0, 22 Washington 10 18.0
49% 10 Denver 37 24.6, 16 Tennessee 16 24.8
40% 14 Green Bay 34 27.1, 15 Minnesota 31 29.4
39% 11 Carolina 37 15.7, 12 Tampa Bay 20 18.3
28% 20 Houston 21 12.2, 13 Jacksonville 0 18.9
23% 26 St. Louis 20 17.9, 3 Philadelphia 7 28.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.95 5 0.94 6 0.89 1 1.24 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 10.6 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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