prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
62% 2 Indianapolis 49 28.0, 3 Denver 24 24.2
39% 21 St. Louis 27 23.2, 17 Seattle 20 26.4
36% 9 New York Jets 20 17.4, 5 San Diego 17 21.5
32% 15 Minnesota 31 25.5, 11 Green Bay 17 31.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 4 0.39 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 1 2.5 0.39
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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