prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
80% 1 New England 30 27.0, 28 Oakland 20 13.1
79% 2 Pittsburgh 34 27.4, 29 Tennessee 7 14.7
77% 7 Buffalo 22 20.7, 26 Houston 7 11.1
68% 19 Jacksonville 26 19.4, 23 Seattle 14 13.9
64% 27 New York Giants 42 18.9, 30 Arizona 19 14.7
63% 20 Washington 9 12.4, 25 Chicago 7 8.1
62% 32 San Francisco 28 23.4, 31 St. Louis 25 20.3
61% 15 Detroit 17 20.3, 12 Green Bay 3 17.5
60% 8 Kansas City 27 25.7, 5 New York Jets 7 23.7
55% 24 Miami 34 16.9, 14 Denver 10 16.1
49% 4 Indianapolis 24 20.8, 9 Baltimore 7 21.1
44% 13 Atlanta 14 17.0, 3 Philadelphia 10 17.9
42% 11 Cincinnati 27 19.0, 22 Cleveland 13 20.3
41% 10 Tampa Bay 24 18.7, 18 Minnesota 13 20.4
37% 17 New Orleans 23 16.8, 16 Carolina 20 20.4
27% 21 Dallas 28 17.9, 6 San Diego 24 25.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.59 6 1.31 3 0.88 1 1.24 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 10.3 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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