prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
78% 11 Philadelphia 42 22.9, 28 San Francisco 3 10.8
78% 1 Pittsburgh 27 22.8, 27 Houston 7 9.4
71% 5 Indianapolis 10 17.9, 12 Jacksonville 3 9.0
71% 2 Kansas City 23 31.9, 19 Oakland 17 22.9
65% 14 Cincinnati 37 21.4, 20 Minnesota 8 15.4
61% 25 St. Louis 17 31.6, 32 Arizona 12 27.7
58% 6 New York Giants 27 26.3, 15 New Orleans 10 24.3
56% 9 Tampa Bay 19 11.6, 7 Buffalo 3 10.3
55% 21 Cleveland 26 11.4, 29 Green Bay 24 10.3
42% 18 Chicago 38 6.9, 4 Detroit 6 8.7
40% 22 Carolina 27 18.9, 8 New England 17 21.4
37% 26 Seattle 21 17.8, 10 Atlanta 18 21.7
35% 31 Denver 20 19.5, 17 San Diego 17 25.1
34% 30 Tennessee 25 7.7, 16 Baltimore 10 14.3
30% 24 New York Jets 17 10.2, 3 Miami 7 19.1
28% 23 Washington 14 13.6, 13 Dallas 13 21.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.32 7 0.44 5 1.08 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 10.5 0.86
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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