2005 Week 3 (25-26 Sep) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 84%   1 Philadelphia            23 24.9,    22 Oakland                 20  6.3
 80%  20 Dallas                  34 32.0,    32 San Francisco           31 16.5
 78%  16 Seattle                 37 28.5,    30 Arizona                 12 15.4
 75%   6 Tampa Bay               17 21.1,    27 Green Bay               16 11.0
 72%   8 Indianapolis            13 19.9,    19 Cleveland                6 12.2
 60%  15 Miami                   27 19.8,    10 Carolina                24 17.5
 54%  14 Atlanta                 24 14.4,    23 Buffalo                 16 13.7

 40%  26 St. Louis               31 19.7,    17 Tennessee               27 22.3
 38%  24 San Diego               45 17.6,     7 New York Giants         23 21.7
 38%   3 Cincinnati              24 16.0,     2 Chicago                  7 19.7
 36%  12 Jacksonville            26  5.7,    11 New York Jets           20  9.9
 32%  28 Minnesota               33 11.7,    13 New Orleans             16 18.0
 24%  25 Denver                  30 14.7,     5 Kansas City             10 24.8
 21%  21 New England             23 12.2,     4 Pittsburgh              20 24.4

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                3 1.15   4 0.00   6 0.87   1 1.19   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  14   7   9.7 0.72

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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