prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
79% 1 Denver 21 24.1, 14 Washington 19 10.5
74% 4 Indianapolis 28 26.6, 32 San Francisco 3 16.7
71% 21 Green Bay 52 22.9, 23 New Orleans 3 14.8
71% 12 Carolina 24 26.2, 31 Arizona 20 18.1
64% 20 Detroit 35 20.0, 24 Baltimore 17 14.9
62% 15 Jacksonville 23 20.7, 5 Cincinnati 20 16.9
51% 26 Tennessee 34 23.8, 29 Houston 20 23.7
48% 22 Buffalo 20 20.4, 7 Miami 14 20.8
48% 19 Cleveland 20 18.2, 17 Chicago 10 18.5
46% 18 Dallas 33 20.0, 9 Philadelphia 10 20.8
43% 2 Pittsburgh 24 22.9, 3 San Diego 22 24.5
38% 13 Seattle 37 24.8, 25 St. Louis 31 28.8
36% 28 New York Jets 14 14.8, 6 Tampa Bay 12 19.1
31% 10 New England 31 16.3, 8 Atlanta 28 23.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.38 5 0.62 4 1.36 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 7 8.8 0.79
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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