prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
77% 14 Washington 52 27.8, 32 San Francisco 17 15.1
76% 27 St. Louis 28 29.5, 29 New Orleans 17 18.8
76% 1 Indianapolis 38 28.4, 28 Houston 20 16.0
71% 19 Atlanta 27 22.6, 23 New York Jets 14 15.2
70% 13 Chicago 10 18.0, 25 Baltimore 6 11.2
70% 10 Seattle 13 25.4, 20 Dallas 10 18.2
66% 26 Oakland 38 21.9, 24 Buffalo 17 16.2
65% 5 Philadelphia 20 23.8, 4 San Diego 17 18.5
59% 30 Minnesota 23 24.7, 16 Green Bay 20 22.9
44% 6 Pittsburgh 27 19.4, 8 Cincinnati 13 20.6
40% 12 New York Giants 24 20.3, 2 Denver 23 22.5
39% 21 Detroit 13 18.3, 18 Cleveland 10 21.3
37% 31 Arizona 20 19.9, 22 Tennessee 10 24.1
34% 7 Kansas City 30 21.2, 11 Miami 20 27.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.57 7 0.87 4 1.33 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 9 9.3 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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