prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
79% 4 Pittsburgh 20 22.7, 23 Baltimore 19 10.5
78% 2 Denver 49 24.5, 8 Philadelphia 21 13.1
68% 17 New England 21 25.4, 25 Buffalo 16 18.7
68% 10 Carolina 38 27.1, 29 Minnesota 13 19.9
67% 21 Miami 21 24.4, 31 New Orleans 6 18.4
67% 1 San Diego 28 29.1, 7 Kansas City 20 22.2
64% 16 Dallas 34 23.1, 26 Arizona 13 17.3
62% 30 St. Louis 24 27.4, 20 Jacksonville 21 23.0
60% 19 New York Giants 36 22.1, 12 Washington 0 19.5
57% 11 Cincinnati 21 22.0, 9 Green Bay 14 20.6
41% 13 Oakland 34 23.2, 28 Tennessee 25 25.3
40% 18 Chicago 19 15.5, 22 Detroit 13 17.9
39% 27 Houston 19 21.4, 14 Cleveland 16 24.9
24% 32 San Francisco 18 17.1, 3 Tampa Bay 10 27.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.57 8 1.35 3 0.86 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 10 9.3 1.08
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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