prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
78% 14 New England 24 27.5, 31 New Orleans 17 14.5
78% 8 Denver 27 27.0, 27 New York Jets 0 13.1
70% 5 New York Giants 27 23.4, 18 Philadelphia 17 16.4
70% 2 San Diego 48 26.0, 20 Buffalo 10 17.3
68% 7 Dallas 20 22.8, 22 Detroit 7 16.0
66% 19 Kansas City 45 30.3, 32 Houston 17 23.9
63% 1 Indianapolis 45 25.2, 10 Cincinnati 37 20.0
62% 26 Baltimore 16 18.2, 11 Pittsburgh 13 14.7
59% 13 Seattle 27 22.2, 29 San Francisco 25 20.2
58% 4 Jacksonville 31 22.3, 28 Tennessee 28 20.5
50% 23 Cleveland 22 19.0, 21 Miami 0 18.9
45% 17 Chicago 13 19.0, 3 Carolina 3 20.0
39% 15 Oakland 16 21.5, 12 Washington 13 24.8
32% 9 Tampa Bay 30 16.3, 6 Atlanta 27 22.8
28% 24 Minnesota 20 18.5, 16 Green Bay 17 28.9
23% 30 Arizona 38 18.4, 25 St. Louis 28 30.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.35 6 1.03 6 0.90 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 10.6 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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