prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
77% 1 Indianapolis 26 27.7, 8 Pittsburgh 7 15.7
70% 20 Minnesota 24 24.2, 19 Cleveland 12 16.6
70% 13 Philadelphia 19 23.2, 18 Green Bay 14 16.2
69% 26 Tennessee 33 27.1, 30 San Francisco 22 19.4
69% 9 Kansas City 26 26.5, 15 New England 16 19.0
68% 11 Cincinnati 42 20.3, 25 Baltimore 29 13.9
66% 12 Seattle 24 22.9, 16 New York Giants 21 17.7
63% 10 Jacksonville 24 20.7, 24 Arizona 17 17.0
58% 14 Atlanta 27 22.3, 27 Detroit 7 20.6
45% 5 Carolina 13 19.0, 22 Buffalo 9 19.9
45% 3 San Diego 23 22.1, 7 Washington 17 23.2
44% 31 St. Louis 33 26.6, 32 Houston 27 27.8
39% 2 Denver 24 19.3, 4 Dallas 21 22.5
36% 29 New Orleans 21 17.2, 28 New York Jets 19 21.7
31% 23 Miami 33 16.8, 21 Oakland 21 24.5
23% 17 Chicago 13 11.5, 6 Tampa Bay 10 21.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.45 10 1.05 2 0.65 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 10.4 0.86
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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