prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
80% 4 Denver 22 28.9, 22 Oakland 3 14.4
77% 13 Baltimore 30 24.2, 27 Minnesota 23 11.9
70% 8 Jacksonville 38 24.8, 32 Houston 20 17.0
67% 20 Tampa Bay 27 23.6, 16 Atlanta 24 17.0
64% 19 Miami 24 24.2, 15 Tennessee 10 18.8
64% 7 Pittsburgh 41 20.2, 24 Cleveland 0 15.3
62% 3 New England 31 21.6, 25 New York Jets 21 18.2
55% 11 Washington 35 19.9, 6 New York Giants 20 19.1
53% 14 Kansas City 20 26.0, 2 San Diego 7 25.3
44% 9 Dallas 24 20.4, 12 Carolina 20 21.6
40% 30 Detroit 13 20.1, 29 New Orleans 12 22.2
40% 28 Arizona 27 17.8, 21 Philadelphia 21 20.3
37% 17 Seattle 28 21.2, 1 Indianapolis 13 25.8
35% 10 Chicago 24 15.2, 18 Green Bay 17 20.5
27% 31 San Francisco 24 18.1, 23 St. Louis 20 30.1
25% 26 Buffalo 37 15.8, 5 Cincinnati 27 25.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.90 8 0.97 4 0.66 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 10.4 0.86
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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