2005 Week 17 (31 Dec - 1 Jan) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 83%   1 Indianapolis            17 31.6,    21 Arizona                 13 14.5
 81%   4 Pittsburgh              35 26.8,    30 Detroit                 21 11.1
 78%  17 Tampa Bay               27 25.0,    28 New Orleans             13 13.0
 77%  14 Jacksonville            40 26.8,    26 Tennessee               13 14.2
 68%  23 San Francisco           20 26.9,    31 Houston                 17 20.0
 68%  11 Kansas City             37 27.5,    13 Cincinnati               3 20.3
 63%  22 Minnesota               34 20.7,    12 Chicago                 10 16.6
 62%  27 New York Jets           30 20.2,    25 Buffalo                 26 16.9
 61%  19 Green Bay               23 22.9,     5 Seattle                 17 19.8

 41%   9 Washington              31 18.2,    20 Philadelphia            20 20.2
 41%   8 New York Giants         30 21.0,    24 Oakland                 21 23.2
 41%   3 Denver                  23 21.0,     2 San Diego                7 23.1
 37%  29 Cleveland               20 14.8,    16 Baltimore               16 18.6
 33%  10 Carolina                44 17.7,     7 Atlanta                 11 23.5
 28%  18 Miami                   28 15.4,     6 New England             26 22.9
 26%  32 St. Louis               20 17.9,    15 Dallas                  10 27.4

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                3 0.00   7 1.11   4 0.66   2 1.22   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16   9  10.9 0.82

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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