prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
79% 11 Indianapolis 43 42.5, 32 Houston 24 13.3
77% 2 Baltimore 28 40.7, 30 Oakland 6 7.5
72% 4 Atlanta 14 34.6, 28 Tampa Bay 3 11.9
70% 1 San Diego 40 33.2, 22 Tennessee 7 15.3
69% 3 Chicago 34 30.4, 25 Detroit 7 12.0
68% 13 Cincinnati 34 28.9, 31 Cleveland 17 12.4
68% 5 Minnesota 16 35.1, 27 Carolina 13 17.4
65% 16 New Orleans 34 30.4, 29 Green Bay 27 17.4
62% 12 Denver 9 28.0, 23 Kansas City 6 19.3
59% 6 Seattle 21 26.9, 15 Arizona 10 22.5
58% 20 Dallas 27 26.9, 26 Washington 10 23.3
50% 19 Buffalo 16 23.5, 21 Miami 6 23.6
50% 9 New England 24 23.2, 10 New York Jets 17 23.2
49% 14 Jacksonville 9 24.1, 8 Pittsburgh 0 24.4
41% 24 San Francisco 20 25.4, 17 St. Louis 13 29.8
38% 18 New York Giants 30 20.6, 7 Philadelphia 24 28.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.92 7 1.30 3 1.32 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 12 10.2 1.18
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net