2006 Week 3 (24-25 Sep) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 89%   1 Baltimore               15 36.6,    32 Cleveland               14  9.8
 79%  13 Washington              31 35.5,    31 Houston                 15 17.8
 68%  16 St. Louis               16 26.6,    23 Arizona                 14 20.2
 68%   9 Indianapolis            21 29.2,    25 Jacksonville            14 22.2
 67%  20 Carolina                26 23.9,    29 Tampa Bay               24 17.3
 61%  21 Miami                   13 26.1,    26 Tennessee               10 23.1
 61%   3 Seattle                 42 27.5,     7 New York Giants         30 24.2
 60%  24 Green Bay               31 27.4,    28 Detroit                 24 23.9
 54%   4 Cincinnati              28 24.6,     6 Pittsburgh              20 23.7
 53%   8 Denver                  17 24.0,    17 New England              7 23.5

 49%  19 Philadelphia            38 25.6,    18 San Francisco           24 25.8
 47%  11 New York Jets           28 23.4,    14 Buffalo                 20 24.1
 39%  15 Chicago                 19 22.3,    12 Minnesota               16 25.8
 36%  10 New Orleans             23 20.0,     2 Atlanta                  3 25.4

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                4 0.95   8 1.18   1 1.26   1 1.13   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  14  10   8.9 1.13

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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