prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
67% 2 Philadelphia 31 30.4, 17 Green Bay 9 23.9
66% 7 New England 38 26.9, 14 Cincinnati 13 20.9
62% 22 St. Louis 41 27.3, 26 Detroit 34 23.7
62% 20 Kansas City 41 29.4, 30 San Francisco 0 25.4
62% 10 Buffalo 17 29.9, 24 Minnesota 12 25.9
61% 5 Carolina 21 27.2, 11 New Orleans 18 24.1
59% 13 Atlanta 32 25.3, 23 Arizona 10 23.4
58% 9 Indianapolis 31 27.0, 15 New York Jets 28 25.4
52% 3 Chicago 37 26.4, 8 Seattle 6 25.9
51% 29 Dallas 45 24.5, 27 Tennessee 14 24.2
49% 12 Washington 36 24.8, 18 Jacksonville 30 24.9
44% 6 Baltimore 16 23.2, 1 San Diego 13 24.4
22% 31 Houston 17 18.7, 21 Miami 15 32.7
20% 32 Cleveland 24 13.6, 25 Oakland 21 33.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 1.23 6 1.58 1 0.00 1 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 10 8.6 1.16
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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