prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 19 Carolina 20 31.4, 31 Cleveland 12 14.4
69% 13 Indianapolis 14 31.6, 30 Tennessee 13 24.0
69% 9 Kansas City 23 30.9, 23 Arizona 20 23.8
63% 4 San Diego 23 29.6, 26 Pittsburgh 13 24.5
61% 7 Minnesota 26 30.1, 12 Detroit 17 26.5
59% 16 Chicago 40 26.2, 27 Buffalo 7 24.1
59% 11 New York Giants 19 28.1, 20 Washington 3 25.9
57% 6 Denver 13 26.2, 2 Baltimore 3 24.6
54% 5 St. Louis 23 30.3, 17 Green Bay 20 29.5
51% 28 San Francisco 34 27.4, 29 Oakland 20 27.3
49% 14 New Orleans 24 25.8, 21 Tampa Bay 21 25.9
45% 10 Philadelphia 38 28.0, 1 Dallas 24 29.3
42% 15 New England 20 26.2, 3 Miami 10 28.0
39% 25 Jacksonville 41 24.2, 8 New York Jets 0 27.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 1.13 5 1.24 0 0.00 1 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 10 8.5 1.18
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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