prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
68% 11 Denver 17 28.0, 31 Cleveland 7 20.6
63% 18 Oakland 22 29.3, 29 Arizona 9 24.7
54% 25 New York Jets 31 28.3, 27 Detroit 24 27.5
51% 5 Indianapolis 36 29.6, 4 Washington 22 29.4
50% 22 Atlanta 41 26.9, 20 Pittsburgh 38 27.0
50% 13 Tampa Bay 23 28.0, 10 Philadelphia 21 27.9
46% 8 New York Giants 36 28.4, 6 Dallas 22 29.2
41% 24 New England 28 26.9, 12 Buffalo 6 29.5
39% 19 Minnesota 31 26.8, 9 Seattle 13 29.7
36% 17 Kansas City 30 26.8, 1 San Diego 27 31.7
35% 23 Green Bay 34 24.3, 2 Miami 24 30.7
33% 26 Cincinnati 17 24.0, 14 Carolina 14 30.1
26% 32 Houston 27 24.5, 21 Jacksonville 7 34.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.94 6 0.52 1 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 5 7.8 0.64
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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